Fat Frankies

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The DIA also issued new financial guidance for class 4 operators, with the aim of providing greater clarity on their accounting requirements and an explanation of their obligations.

The department said the guidance had been designed to “improve consistency across the sector and help prevent similar issues from occurring in future”.

In May, an investigation under the title “Operation Turbo” charged an Auckland man on eight counts under the Gambling Act.

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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

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“The Commission’s approach to reporting may well create the inaccurate impression that the industry is inherently non-compliant,” he adds. A more balanced account might place failures alongside the majority of licensees that pass assessments or lead on customer wellbeing, although Waugh considers such a shift unlikely.

The “too easy to get a licence” argument doesn’t necessarily hold up to scrutiny, to be fair. Andrew Bentley, co-founder and CEO of regulatory technology startup LiSense, is one who rejects the suggestion.

“There are significant checks on individuals and businesses before a licence is granted,” he says. “The UK Gambling Commission has set out what it expects. If you want a licence in the UK, you need to meet those expectations.”