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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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But I couldn’t have accomplished half of what I did without all of my colleagues, past and present. Our talented team of writers, editors, web site development guys, production team, on screen reporters, Human Resources, Accountants, everyone. It took the whole team to make sure we put up the latest news and opinions every day, and everyone deserves their fair share of the credit.

To all of those I met at the handful of conferences I attended before Covid-19 sent everything to digital, and all of those I met over email or Zoom since, it was a pleasure to meet you. I hope we get the chance to meet again when all of this is over, and you can reach me at any of my contact details listed at the bottom if you want to catch up in the meantime.

I’m still not 100% sure what I’ll be doing next, but I suspect it will still be in the gambling industry. This has been my life for more than a decade, and it’s an industry I continue to love and appreciate. No matter if I continue to write about it or throw myself back into an operations setting, it will always be apart of who I am. If you still want to be in touch, you can connect with me on LinkedIn, or you can follow me on Twitter if you to know whatever tangent I’ve gone off on next.

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The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner for an agency that traditionally features a bipartisan group of five. Selig has repeatedly defended both the legitimacy of prediction markets as financial assets and the role of the CFTC in overseeing them. The CFTC under his direction has embarked on a series of rule proposals regarding prediction markets, although detractors argue that the proposed changes still allow for sports contracts and in some ways could be seen as a tightening of the belt to make a Supreme Court review look more favourable.

“It’s not a question of whether innovations like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets will transform our markets. It’s a question of where this innovation will take place and who will write the rules,” Selig said during a meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee on 20 August, which featured the CEOs of Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, CME Group and more.